A Trio Of Fundamentals And A Full Moon

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Below is a bit of history from Haunted By Markets in a chapter entitled, A Trio Of Fundamentals And A Full Moon. The chapter was written on October 7, 2011. Note that today is the anniversary of the stock market crash of 2007. Anyway, here are the opening paragraphs:

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A Trio Of Fundamentals and A Full Moon


"The Third Quarter of the year finally ended and none too soon for those bullish stocks and commodities. Values plunged so deeply the past three months it turned out to be the worst single Quarter since 2008, when the nation was bogged down in the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.


Unfortunately, a new Quarter is rapidly unfolding and not much has changed as the Dow and the CRB Index slipped to their lowest levels in 12 months early this week. The hemorrhaging continues.


The weakness was not a total surprise. In early July, I warned that the stock and commodity markets were poised for a significant sell-off. In late August, just as pessimistic and bearish I wrote, With September and October, two of the most bearish months of the year at hand, the time has arrived to play it safe rather than be sorry. Though the steep declines were not entirely unexpected, I do admit that the severity of the weakness with a handful of markets was indeed an eye opener.


The gold market for instance, in September, endured its worst month since 1987. Silver had its most bearish month since 1980. The corn market put in its most depressing performance since 1959. And shares of Eastman Kodak (EK), that peaked in 1999 at $80 a share, traded down to $.54 a share in the waning days of the month. It was a brutal period for those long much of anything.


Eastman Kodak is a classic example of what can happen when a sea change takes place and there is a failure to adapt to the transition. The inability of Kodak to compete in a new global marketplace dominated by digital technology is the primary reason their stock went from $80 a share to $.54. The lesson to be learned is as clear as gin: Adapt to a changing landscape or suffer the consequences."

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Tonight is a full moon. And from almanac.com: "Octobers Moon rises just after sunset and sets around sunrise, so this is the only night in the month when the Moon is in the sky all night long.

Some Native American tribes referred to Octobers Moon as the Full Hunters Moon, as it was the time to go hunting in preparation for winter. This full Moon is also called the Travel Moon and the Dying Grass Moon. "


This is October, one of the most bearish months of the year for the stock market and also for commodities. It is a jinx month where those that are long are generally wrong. But my lean is to be long KC wheat that is now on the plus by 41/2 cents a bushel and short cattle and hogs that are 70 to 100 lower.

And later today I will be suggesting a new trading idea to my brokerage clients and to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite.

Check out www.commodityinsite.com. It is there you will find Haunted By Markets and Back To The Futures. There is a special offer to those that step forward and buy my books. Check it out.

The time is 9:09 a.m. Chicago



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