Morning Grain Market Research

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It is a little challenging this morning to describe the market action without breaking into a big yawn. It does appear that we have settled into pre-report mode, so may see grain and soy markets tread water between now and Thursday. Of course, water remains a problem for many farms across the corn/bean belt and will obviously soon become a big problem for residents of Florida. According to NOAA, once we have moved beyond this week, the outlook changes to cooler and dryer so by the time we reach the report on Thursday, weather may be the last thing on the minds of the trade.

Once again, here are estimates for the October report; Corn production of 14.872 billion from a yield of 181.8. Harvested acreage is expected to be trimmed by 80,000 acres. The bean crop is expected to tally 4.733 billion with a whooping yield of 53.3. Harvested acreage is expected to drop 180,000 acres. Carryout for corn is projected to increase 145 million from last month to 1.919 billion, beans up 53 million to 898 million and wheat 15 million to 950 million. World ending stocks are estimated to come in at 159.3 MMT for corn, 109.53 MMT beans and 261.41 MMT wheat.

We will see a full array of updates from Washington today now that they are back from to work, but I have yet to see any announcement concerning changes concerning ethanol. Many expect it will be a waiver to allow nationwide sales of E-15 blends on a year-around basis, but it is hard to imagine that the petroleum industry will not be offered some kind of enticement as well. We shall have to wait and see.

Global news is uneventful as well. Planting progress continues at a clipper pace in Brazil and Argentina has received some needed moisture. The French ag ministry has updated production estimates, lowering corn 200,000 MT and barley a similar amount but the trade expected a deeper cut.

Corn, beans, and wheat all sit is short-term overbought positions so without something that leans surprisingly positive come Thursday, it would appear that we are poised for a downward corrective swing.

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