Soybeans - Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 6.75 cents lower ($8.63), March 5.5 cents lower ($8.89.25) & July 4.75 cents lower ($9.14)

Oct Soybean Meal closed $0.7 lower ($313.5), Dec $0.7 lower ($317.8) & March $0.4 lower ($316.9)

Oct Soybean Oil closed 36 pts lower ($28.97), Dec 38 pts lower ($29.26) & March 35 pts lower ($29.76)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections 569.7 K T. vs. 500-900 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Condition & Progress - % GE vs. 67% expected vs. % year ago Harvested - 32% vs. 35% expected vs. 36% 5-year average

The complex started out slowly with trading on either side of unchanged. Mid-session the White House reiterated China was not ready to sit down and work out the ongoing trade disputes. They went on to say that previously scheduled meetings have been cancelled and if China wants to retaliate further with additional tariffs of their own the US was ready to slap on their additional tariffs. In other words the White House appears content to continue to play hard ball if need be. With all of this said prices started to slide and pretty much stayed under pressure for the balance of the day. The meal market had the least amount of losses and that is a result of recent export meal business. Bean oil struggles as it finds additional selling keying off of the reversal that was registered last Thursday. The trade is still pondering possible yield loss due to the inundating rains that have occurred in the western Midwest. Its doubtful the USDA will address this possibility on Thursdays report. The trade is still expecting to see a bump up in yield, a larger carryin, a possible cut in exports and a possible hike in crush. The wild card could be harvested acres as trade ideas are looking for a cut. The question is how big of a cut. Currently trade guesses are thinking 180 K while others think it could be greater.

Interior processor basis levels read steady to lower while interior river basis levels read steady to better. Bids at the Gulf edge higher while offers appear to be edging lower. Soybean spreads ran wider out through the new crop. Overall soybean spreads continue to show a widening bias. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior stay slack looking. Offers to sell meal for export run unchanged. Meal spreads, Dec forward ran fractionally wider out to May. May forward gains fractionally. Meal spreads overall have been trying to improve but the price actin looks like a struggle.

Soybean spreads are widening and the soybean flat price appears to be running out of steam with its recent attempts to grind higher. I dont think the USDA can give us anything to sustain much of a further ally vs. what we have already seen. Then again on report day most of the movement we see is a reaction to what the trade had been expecting not so much of its real fundamental value. Where can the soybean market go on the upside with a carryout above 800 million bu. the best it can do in my opinion is to tread water. If you want a sustainable bull market in soybeans call your congressman.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/10

Nov Soybeans: $8.55 - $8.70

Dec Soybean Meal: $313.0 - $321.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.85 - $29.55

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.