Trading the Noise - Blue Line Morning Express
Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2888.25, down 5.50

Fundamentals:Major U.S benchmarks have again softened a bit overnight after firming though U.S hours in the prior session. While yesterday was largely a consolidation, the tape remains vulnerable with Treasury yields attracting investment, heightened trade tensions between the U.S and China and calls for peak growth. Since last week, we have hit on rising Treasury yields as one catalyst for equity market weakness and our Bearish Bias. Please read yesterdays report where we discussed the impending Treasury auctions. Today, 3-year and 10-year Notes hit the market. The U.S and China standoff continues, and the Dollar is holding at the highest level against the Yuan since August 16th and just below the psychological 7.00 barrier. The market is not buying upbeat comments from a Chinese official nor does it believe the comments from White House Economic Advisor Hassett this morning that trade deals with other countries will bring China to the table. Yesterday, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for this year and next. We are firm believers that the international trade conflict coupled with dissipating tailwinds from tax-reform will hurt growth in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the Federal Reserves newfound hawkishness is either their last stand to bid rates or a complete mistake altogether.

U.S PPI data is due at 7:30 am CT but tomorrows CPI read is watched much more closely. Wholesale Inventories are due at 9:00 am CT. Chicago Fed President speaks at 11:15 am CT. Yesterday, the old dove and 2019 Fed voter did not comment on monetary policy, lets keep an eye on whether he does today. Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks this evening at 5:00 pm CT. Lastly, Walgreens reports earnings today but lets not forget that the season really kicks off Friday with JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo before the bell.

Technicals:Yesterday, first key resistance kept the opening bell buying in check and proved to be a strong sell opportunity. Once the market slipped, it could not regain our pivot which leaves the bears squarely in the drivers seat below ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Crude Oil (November)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 74.96, up 0.67

Fundamentals:Price action remains stable but failed to get out above first key resistance yesterday. Hurricane Michael is keeping a small premium in the market, but we maintain the larger and longer-term focus is Iranian supply. Yes, offshore producers in the Gulf began evacuating rigs on Monday and have cut nearly 40% of their production; hence the small premium. However, we must remember that the entire Florida panhandle region has been evacuated and if this storm makes landfall at a Category 4 or is anywhere near as bad as they say, the destruction will cause less consumption. Traders should continue to monitor the developments but keep both sides of the narrative in mind. API is after the bell today since Columbus Day was a Federal holiday.

Technicals:Price action has been very stable above our pivot that has been tightened to 74.43 and this has left the bulls in the clear drivers seat. Still, it is important to understand that first key resistance at...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1191.5, down 2.9

Fundamentals:Gold has held ground after Mondays disappointing drop but underperformed the reversal in the Dollar Index through yesterdays session as the Euro firmed. This is because the Dollar remains at the strongest level against the Chinese Yuan since August 16th and just below the 7.00 psychological barrier. Furthermore, Chinas Yuan devaluation Sunday night continues to leave an unpredictable dynamic. However, we do not foresee a follow-up devaluation in the near future. U.S PPI this morning was inline on the Core read but missed on the headline YoY; this takes a back seat to tomorrows CPI read. We will keep an ear to the ground on comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who speaks at 11:15 am CT and is a voting member in 2019.

Technicals:Rally attempts have failed to at first key resistance at 1196 and this has given the bears an edge this morning as they attempt to build a bear flag pattern. Major three-star support remains at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.